Ukraine makes a risky move, "heating up" the Kursk front

Ukraine makes a risky move, "heating up" the Kursk front

(Dan Tri) - Ukraine and Russia are caught up in a fierce battle in Kursk, which is considered an important card in potential negotiations pushed by the administration of US President-elect Donald Trump.

About five months after Ukraine launched a surprise attack on the Russian border province of Kursk, Kiev decided to launch a new offensive in the region last weekend. The question military historians have been debating for some time is whether the gamble was worth it.

As for Ukraine, there have been some signs that they may continue to risk a new offensive.

Although it came at some cost, the assault on Kursk allowed Ukraine to move from a defensive posture to an offensive one, and forced Russian resources to be diverted. These are positive developments for Kiev, said Mark Cancian, a senior adviser at the Center for Strategic and International Studies.

Opportunity to change the situation

Ukraine's offensive on Kursk was a surprise move for war watchers, Ukraine's international allies, Russian forces and even many Kiev soldiers.

Ukraine said at the time that it was trying to create a buffer zone, straining Russian fighting resources while maintaining control of Russian territory and hostages to negotiate with Moscow. Ukraine may also want to boost the morale of its tired troops and show resilience to Western nations that have stalled on arms supplies.

This offensive also gives them the opportunity to develop initiatives and expand the range of their attacks on Russian territory. At the same time, Ukraine wants to demonstrate that they still have many cards to play in the current conflict.

Colonel Hamish de Bretton-Gordon, former commander of the British Chemical, Biological, Radiological and Nuclear Forces, has highlighted Ukraine’s effective use of UAVs and the deployment of armored vehicles. Of course, such deployments are costly.

However, there is no guarantee that Ukraine can effectively deploy tanks again when UAVs are operating densely in its airspace.

Ease pressure on the front lines

According to Mr. George Barros, an expert at the Institute for the Study of War, Ukraine's recent steps have fundamentally disrupted Russia's war plan.

The commander-in-chief of Ukraine's armed forces admitted in December that he had no choice but to attack Kursk, as Kiev needed to relieve pressure on fronts in the east and prevent Moscow from opening a new front in the country's Sumy region.

The offensive has reduced the intensity of Russian operations across Ukraine, except in Pokrovsk and Kurakhove, areas where Moscow forces are advancing, he said.

Whoever holds Kursk will probably have a stronger position in any ceasefire talks in the new year, said Mr Bretton-Gordon.

In addition to serving as a bargaining chip, Kursk helped dispel the idea that the war was hopelessly deadlocked for Kiev. It also showed that Ukraine could achieve surprise and great gains.

Was the Kursk campaign worth it?

“The choice to carry out that attack was very bold,” said Matthew Savill, a former intelligence analyst at the British Ministry of Defense. “It caused the Russians to temporarily back down. At the same time, it showed that Ukrainian forces still have plenty of resources to attack if they identify Russian weaknesses.”

However, he also said that the decision to retain most of Kursk after that first major advance "may have turned out to be a mistake".

A week after launching a new offensive on Kursk, Ukraine has made only modest gains in some areas. Meanwhile, Russia has continued to advance steadily along its left flank. Russia has so far recaptured about half of the territory controlled by Ukraine in Kursk.

"Those were difficult days. Russia attacked from several directions at the same time. Some of their attacks were successful. They also crossed the border into Ukraine at several points, but we regained our positions," said a Ukrainian soldier.