Ukraine War 12/1: "Kursk Arc" on fire, Kiev pays a heavy price

(Dan Tri) - Kiev is in a "dilemma" because if they withdraw from the Kursk region, Russia, with a force of about 60,000 people, can launch a major attack on Ukraine from this very front.

Ukraine in danger in Toretsk and Velyka Novosilka 

South of Donetsk, the Russian military (RFAF) reportedly took control of the village of Neskuchne, according to the Military Summary channel . At the same time, there were reports of attacks north of Velyka Novosilka.

In the direction of Pokrovsk, Moscow forces are closing in on the T04-06 route. Currently, Russian infantry is threatening the villages of Kotlyne and Odachne.

In Toretsk, the RFAF controls almost the entire city. Only a few houses remain in the hands of the Ukrainian army (AFU). At the same time, Moscow forces continue their attacks further west and have captured the first houses in Novospaske.

RFAF attacks continue in the Kursk area. According to pro-Moscow sources, the fields south of Berdin are once again under Russian control and the village of Kosiza is said to be under control. West of Malaya Loknaya, the RFAF has penetrated the forests and is advancing on the strategically important village.

Moscow forces are steadily building up along the entire line of contact. Over the past 24 hours, there has been increased activity in the direction of Velyka Novosilka. Reports indicate that the village of Neskuchnoye has been captured by Russian forces.

 Ayden Channel confirmed that Moscow forces had retaken Neskuchnoye. Now all the gains made during Ukraine's counter-offensive in the area last year have been reversed. Velyka Novosilka will fall next, and soon.

 

The Deep State channel, which is affiliated with the Main Directorate of Defense Intelligence of Ukraine (GUR), said that Moscow's forces are breaking through west of Kurakhove, towards Dachnoye and Yantarnoye.

Dachnoe is being "wiped out", Russian infantry has also been spotted in the area of ​​the wastewater treatment plant west of Kurakhove, Ukrainian analysts complain.

"The Russians are using heavy artillery to fire at the crossing point between Ulakly and Konstantinople. Reconnaissance groups of Moscow forces are trying to approach Andreevka from the east," Deep State wrote.

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Kursk is on fire, if Ukraine retreats, the consequences will be extremely serious

Readovka reported that the Kursk front has seen a series of attacks from both sides over the past week. The most intense was the AFU’s move towards the village of Bolshoye Soldatskoye, the northeastern corner of the “arc” created by Ukraine in the operation that began in August 2024 .

Apparently, the Kiev command took into account its own experience in the offensive near Kursk. Then the AFU gathered a powerful force, equipped with many armored vehicles, but abandoned the remaining directions without reserves.

All this led to the loss of the defensive perimeter around Pokrovsk, which the RFAF had captured while Kiev forces attacked Sudzha. Obviously, this experience was not very pleasant, so this time they decided to carry out the attack with limited forces.

The military significance of this effort, if it existed at all, remains unclear. The Kursk offensive seemed plausible for the first three days, when there was some chance, albeit remote, of breaking into the nuclear power plant within artillery range or at least of “mapping” a large area.

Now that the position was clearly established, the Kursk area was, in purely operational terms, a desert where the AFU could not achieve any important objectives and paid a heavy price.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky is clinging to the false idea that the presence of Kiev forces near Kursk will strengthen his negotiating position, but it appears that holding onto at least some of the villages has become something of an obsession for him.

So the meaning of the attempted breakthrough into Bolshoye Soldatskoye remains a mystery to analysts and perhaps future psychoanalysts.

We must state the facts. Specifically: Kiev forces have allocated a mechanized group, mainly from the 82nd Air Assault Brigade, one of the strongest and most elite forces. This group includes, as they initially claimed, up to 6 brigades. In reality, it is many times smaller.

On January 5, the group moved into the Berdin area on the way to Bolshoe Soldatskoe. But they already knew what was waiting for them along the way. Apparently, the Russian military had been able to detect preparations for an attack in advance and had forces in the area ready to respond forcefully and quickly.

After the failed border defense in August, Russia now expected an even more powerful attack than it actually did. The RFAF, for its part, reported that the AFU had a very strong electronic warfare capability.

However, electronic warfare is not a magic wand, it will protect against UAVs, but not all. Fiber-optic guided FPV drones, conventional anti-tank missiles (ATGMs) were used by Russia against Kiev forces, helicopters were brought into the air so attacks were prevented.

A series of destroyed AFU vehicles were directly related to nearby Berdyn and Novosotnitsky, Kiev forces broke into the villages. However, whoever came stayed there. Not long after, videos appeared of Russian soldiers inspecting the dead Ukrainian soldiers in the settlement, and they themselves were walking in the highest position, which means the enemy was somewhere far away.

According to Russian statistics, more than 20 AFU armored vehicles were destroyed, and objective inspection shows that this is more or less true: tanks, armored vehicles and armored personnel carriers were indeed burned.

One of the obvious reasons for the AFU’s failure was the relatively small force it attacked with. A reasonable question arises: why was the attack so surprisingly weak? The answer is given to us through the RFAF and its operations.

Parallel to the enemy's attack, the Russian army counterattacked from two directions. One prong was located in the northwestern corner of the "arc", near Malaya Loknya. Fierce battles took place in Malaya Loknya during the AFU summer offensive, and after that the village had to be abandoned. Currently, Moscow's forces are approaching it from the northwest.

The other direction is Makhnovka, which borders Sudzha to the south. There, Moscow forces have entered the village and street battles are taking place inside the village.

For Kiev forces, the capture of not only Berdyn but also Bolshoye Soldatskoye only increased the front line. But the Russian operations near Makhnovka were more interesting in that they narrowed the range and allowed them to gradually approach the only major road in the enemy's rear.

It is worth noting that the Kiev units near Kursk were battalions and brigades, relatively well equipped with heavy equipment. That is, they relied on supplies more than a regular infantry brigade, with FPV drones as a support weapon and standard firepower.

Following this route, from Sudzha to the southwest, it is about 7km, if you count from the nearest point across the field, and even 5km, if the RFAF goes straight through Sudzha. In any case, breaking out of the route would make the situation for the Ukrainian army near Sudzha extremely tense. And it is clear that this is how the RFAF will take the remaining areas of the Kursk region from the enemy.

Kiev forces are in a "dilemma" because if they withdraw from the Kursk region, the RFAF, with a force of about 60,000, could immediately launch a large-scale attack on Ukraine from this very front, the Washington Post commented, emphasizing that the Kursk region will play an important role in future peace negotiations.

 

Ukrainian General Staff: 370 Russian soldiers eliminated in Pokrovsk

Ukrainska Pravda reported that the report of the Ukrainian General Staff on the evening of January 11 said that 157 clashes took place, in particular, in the direction of Pokrovsk, the enemy attacked 63 times.

The report said: "Russia conducted 11 air strikes and 1 missile attack, used 20 KAB bombs and 1 missile, deployed 751 suicide UAVs and carried out about 4,000 artillery strikes."

The Ukrainian General Staff confirmed that the AFU had broken most of the enemy's offensive attempts in Kharkov, Kupyansk, Liman, Seversky, Kramatorsk, Toretsk, Novopavlovsk and Dnieper. The defenses repelled 17 Russian attacks in the direction of Kursk. One clash continues.

With the support of bombers, the RFAF is attacking the Ukrainian defenses in the direction of Pokrovsk. During the day, the enemy has launched 63 attacks. The defenders have repelled 52 attacks, 11 battles are still ongoing. Preliminary statistics show that the Ukrainian army has killed 189 Russian soldiers and wounded 188 others. Several RFAF vehicles have been destroyed or damaged.

UAVs attack one of Russia's largest oil refineries

In Russia 's Tatarstan, a UAV likely hit the Taneco oil refinery in the Tatarstan Oil Refinery Complex, Astra reported . Locals are posting footage of smoke rising from one of the plants and what appears to be an evacuation underway.

The head of the Center for Countering Disinformation at the National Security and Defense Council of Ukraine Andriy Kovalenko on Telegram confirmed the attack on Taneco, one of the largest and most modern oil refineries in Russia, with a capacity to process more than 16 million tons of oil per year.

“The plant plays an important role in supplying fuel to the Russian army. The destruction of the refinery and oil storage facilities directly affects the enemy’s ability to conduct intensive warfare. A previous raid on the refinery in the spring of 2024 damaged the plant’s main processing unit. The distance from the front is more than 1,000km,” Kovalenko said.

Russia's defeat in the Kharkov region

The 3rd Separate Strike Brigade of Ukraine has released a video of the battles on January 8 and 9 in the Kharkov region, in which the Russian army lost 20 units of equipment, Ukrainska Pravda reported.

The 3rd Brigade noted that "it was almost like a tank battle near Brody", as in these battles the enemy lost 20 armored units.

"On January 8 and 9, forces of the 4th Guards Division of the 1st Tank Army advanced towards the brigade's position to carry out a breakthrough. Part of the convoy was stopped by ATGM strikes during the march," the report said.

"The infantry and tanks left the road and started hitting mines. The remaining tanks were attacked by FPVs. The pontoon bridge was destroyed and one tank was sunk. The Russian infantry was protected by artillery and parachute drops. The survivors began to retreat. The RFAF dispersed the entire formation, but continued to attack with an armored group from four directions at the same time, but all were unsuccessful," the 3rd Brigade added.